Duncan, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS64 KOUN 041116
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
616 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

- Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms are likely early this
  morning and again Friday night/early Saturday.

- Low chance for accumulating snow late Saturday into early
  Sunday. Accumulation/travel impacts are unlikely.

- Turning cold this weekend with freezing temperatures Sunday and
  Monday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms, including occasional with
severe weather hazards, will continue into the early afternoon
(especially along/east of the Interstate 44 corridor).

Water vapor imagery captures a high-amplitude upper system,
currently centered across Baja, continuing a sluggish eastward
advance early this morning. A lead upper impulse is ejecting out
across West Texas/Trans Pecos. As low-level flow continues to
steadily increase, isentropically-driven precipitation is
expanding across portions of western Texas into western/southern
Oklahoma.

Precipitation is likely (>80%) across the entire forecast area for
at least a short duration into the late afternoon, with highest
coverage across the southern/eastern forecast area during the
period. There is concern for scattered strong-to-severe
thunderstorms, beginning in the next hour (2 AM). The greatest
concern through midday will be from western-north Texas into
portions of south-central and southeast Oklahoma. Here, strong
deep-layer shear will overlap with >500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE,
promoting a risk for large hail and a few damaging wind gusts
(mainly with any dominant elevated supercell).

Additional chances for severe weather may continue into the
afternoon across southeast Oklahoma, pending the ultimate track of a
surface low across east Texas (modulating warm sector position).
If an effective warm front can lift into portions of the
aforementioned area, then all severe hazards (large hail/damaging
winds/very low tornado risk) would be possible with the strongest
thunderstorms into the early evening.

While most precipitation should clear our area towards sunset,
renewed (widespread) coverage will arrive towards late Friday
evening, as another embedded wave rounds out across the region.
Once again, with continued strong deep-layer wind fields and
sufficient instability, occasional severe weather (hail/strong
winds) will be possible, focused across the southern one-third of
the forecast area.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The primary upper wave will continue to progress slowly eastward
during the weekend. Widespread/likely chances for precipitation will
continue across most of the area on Saturday morning. Into the
afternoon/evening, activity will focus across western
Oklahoma/western-north Texas, closer to the ejecting upper/cold
low. While thunderstorms remain possible, especially across
southeast Oklahoma through midday Saturday, severe chances are
likely to focus east of the forecast area by the afternoon. After
multiple waves of moderate-to-heavy rain leading into early
Saturday morning, some minor flooding of low-lying and poor-drained
areas will be possible across southern Oklahoma.

By Saturday night/Sunday morning, as stronger cold advection/a
front filters in beneath the cold low, wintry precipitation
(snow) chances will be possible (most likely across northwestern &
northern Oklahoma). Still, with marginal/above-freezing surface
temperatures expected, chances for travel impacts/accumulations
remain quite low at this time.

Besides precipitation/winter precipitation chances, a bout of much
cooler air is expected during the weekend. This will begin across
northwestern zones by Saturday morning, where sub-freezing
morning lows are possible. A good chunk of the area is expected to
remain in the 40s during the day Saturday amidst
clouds/precipitation, with widespread freezing temperatures then
likely by Sunday morning.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The slow-moving upper system will begin to accelerate to the east
into early next week, as a deeper upper low rotates across the
Northeast. The upper pattern will then transition towards a
western ridge into the midweek. This will favor a return of drier
and warmer conditions. Very cold temperatures (upper-20s/30s) are
expected on Monday morning, with seasonable conditions currently
anticipated by the afternoon. 70s-80s conditions are likely to
return by Tuesday.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue over the area,
gradually shifting off to the east. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
fairly widespread. Models indicate some meager lifting of
ceilings this afternoon before ceilings crash back down again
tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
overnight.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  44  47  32 /  80  90 100  90
Hobart OK         56  40  46  31 /  90  90  90  90
Wichita Falls TX  59  46  50  34 /  80  90 100  90
Gage OK           54  32  44  27 /  90  90  80  50
Ponca City OK     55  42  48  32 /  90  60  90  80
Durant OK         61  53  56  37 / 100 100 100  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...14